It would be a mistake to say the Canadiens went into the all-star break with back-to-back losses to the worst team in the National Hockey League.
For the past two months, the Canadiens have been the worst team in the NHL.
Columbus may be at the bottom of the standings, but if you take away Montreal’s sizzling start and the Blue Jackets’ winless streak at the beginning of the season that cost coach Todd Richards his job, the Blue Jackets have a better record than the Canadiens.
An optimist can look at the standings and note that the Canadiens are only three points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
A realist would say the Canadiens are done.
There have been tantalizing suggestions that the Canadiens are turning things around — the New Year’s Day win over Boston in the Winter Classic or the 3-2 shootout win over Toronto last weekend — but Montreal needs a string of victories and the team has gone two months without even a modest two-game winning streak.
After Tuesday’s 5-2 loss to the Blue Jackets, the Canadiens’ chances of qualifying for the post-season took a nosedive according to the number-crunching geeks at http://www.sportsclubstats.com. Montreal’s chances of playing beyond the regular season dropped 11.7 per cent to 28.5 per cent.
It’s partly because the team holding the final playoff spot, the Pittsburgh Penguins, is not only three points ahead but also holds two games in hand.
It’s partly because there are two other teams ahead of Montreal in the chase for the final spot and Ottawa is tied in points with Montreal.
It’s mostly because Montreal is in a tailspin with only five wins since Dec. 3.
Injuries, particularly to goaltender Carey Price, have hurt but the Canadiens have lost the swagger they showed earlier this season.
They no longer dominate with their speed.
They no longer wear the opposition down in the third period.
They make mistakes that would embarrass a midget team.
A turnaround seems unlikely and that raises the question: What does general manager Marc Bergevin do next?
The answer is probably: Not much.
If the Canadiens are still in the hunt by the trading deadline, Bergevin will be in the market for offensive help — a rental with some size and a finishing touch.
If the Canadiens are out of the mix, that would normally make them sellers but finding a deal might be difficult.
Two attractive players for a team looking for a missing piece would be centre Tomas Plekanec and defenceman Andrei Markov, but shipping out either player would accomplish little more than opening some cap space because the most likely return would be a second-round draft choice.
Bergevin foresaw the possibility of moving the versatile Plekanec last year when he signed the veteran to a two-year, $12-million deal without a no-trade clause.
The development of Mark Barberio and the acquisition of Victor Bartley open the possibility of dealing a defenceman, but moving Markov would be difficult because he has one year remaining on his deal after this season. He has taken a hometown discount because he has found a comfort level here, which suggests he wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause.
The fading playoff hopes will also have an effect on Price’s recovery from a knee injury. He’s still two to three weeks away from being ready to play but if the Canadiens have nothing to gain from his return, it would be better to shut him down and give him the best chance to be 100-per-cent fit for next season.
phickey@postmedia.com